Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41466063›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2026

The global macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus.

Simiao Chen, Zhong Cao, Wenjin Chen, Jinghan Zhao, Lirui Jiao, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, An Pan, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, David E Bloom

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Integrated UHPLC-QTOF-MSJournal of computer-aided molecular design · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Simiao Chen *Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. simiao.chen@uni-heidelberg.de.ORCID 0000-0003-0555-2157
Zhong Cao *Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Wenjin ChenSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Jinghan ZhaoHeidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Lirui JiaoUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Klaus PrettnerDepartment of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria.
Michael KuhnInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
An PanHuazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.ORCID 0000-0002-1089-7945
Till Winfried BärnighausenHeidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4182-4212
David E BloomHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3731-3345

Funding

China Medical Board (CMB) 22-469
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Diabetes mellitus poses a substantial and rising global health and economic burden, affecting more than one in ten adults worldwide. Using a health-augmented macroeconomic model across 204 countries and territories, we estimated the economic impact of diabetes from 2020 to 2050, incorporating losses in effective labor supply due to mortality and morbidity, treatment-related resource diversion and informal caregiving costs. Without informal care, the global burden amounts to $10.2 trillion (2017 international dollars (INT$)), equivalent to 0.22% of annual global gross domestic product. Including informal care, the burden increases dramatically to INT$78.8 trillion, ranging from INT$5.5 trillion to INT$152.1 trillion, depending on the assumptions for care. The absolute costs are highest in the United States, China and India, while relative and per capita burdens are greatest in countries such as American Samoa and Australia. These findings highlight the uneven distribution of diabetes' economic impact and underscore the urgent need for effective global interventions.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessDiabetes MellitusGlobal HealthCaregiversHealth Care CostsHumansUnited States

Identifiers

PMID41466063
PMCPMC12823416

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.