Addressing Malnutrition Through Reducing the Cost of a Healthy Diet in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has significantly reduced child undernutrition, yet micronutrient deficiencies and diet-related non-communicable diseases remain pressing challenges. While the afordability of healthy diets is recognized as a key determinant of nutrition outcomes, limited attention has been paid to the uncertainties that affect diet costs and access over time. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the major drivers of uncertainty in the cost of healthy diets in Bangladesh and their implications for nutrition policy. This study emloyed foresight tools to explore future uncertainties affecting the cost and accessibility of healthy diets in Bangladesh. Key drivers of change, such as climate variability, market dynamics, income inequality, and dietary behavior, were identified through a structured expert workshop. Two critical uncertainties were selected using the 2 × 2 scenario planning method: food price volatility and changing dietary patterns. These formed the basis for four plausible future scenarios, each illustrating different trajectories for nutrition and food system outcomes. This foresight approach supports proactive, multisectoral policymaking by highlighting potential risks and opportunities for ensuring affordable, nutritious diets in a changing context. The resulting scenarios underscore the need for integrated, multisectoral strategies to build resilient food systems, improve the affordability of nutrient-rich foods, and promote dietary behavior change.