Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41461784›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Widespread heat stress will become the norm in a warming Southeast Asia.

Sonali Manimaran, Dennis Wagenaar, Christine Nam, Indraneel Kasmalkar, Ludwig Lierhammer, Laurens M Bouwer, David Lallemant

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Sonali ManimaranEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Ave, Singapore, 639798, Singapore. emsonali@gmail.com.
Dennis WagenaarEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Ave, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Christine NamClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Fischertwiete 1, Hamburg, 20095, Germany.
Indraneel KasmalkarEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Ave, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Ludwig LierhammerCopernicus Climate Change Service, German Weather Service (DWD), Bernhard-Nocht-Straße 76, Hamburg, 20359, Germany.
Laurens M BouwerClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Fischertwiete 1, Hamburg, 20095, Germany.
David LallemantEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Ave, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.

Funding

Helmholtz Association "Changing Earth - Sustaining our Future"Helmholtz Information & Data Science Academy Visiting Researcher GrantMinistry of Education - Singapore MOE2019-T3-1-004Ministry of Education - Singapore MOE-T2EP50222-0016
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Southeast Asia faces growing risks from extreme heat under climate change, yet existing assessments do not fully account for physiological impacts and population-level exposure, particularly at resolutions relevant for planning. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of future heat stress in the region by integrating three methodological innovations: physiologically relevant bio-climatic indices, spatially explicit population exposure, and sub-daily temporal resolution. Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), we assess heat stress across Southeast Asia at [Formula: see text] km spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution under low- and high-emissions scenarios. We combine these projections with population data to identify where and when risks are most acute. Our results show that even by the near-future (2030–2059), exposure to life-threatening extremes (UTCI > [Formula: see text]C, WBGT > [Formula: see text]C) increases sharply, by factors of 2.8–4.6 (UTCI) and 4.6–7.9 (WBGT) relative to historical levels. The number of people exposed to at least one consecutive week of extreme UTCI grows from 9 million historically to 23–28 million under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, while extreme WBGT exposure increases from 0.1 million to 7–17 million. Continental Southeast Asia, including Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia, faces the most acute risks, with 6–9 hours of severe heat stress per day during peak months. By the far-future (2070–2099) under RCP8.5, exposure escalates to catastrophic levels, with up to 200 days per year of unsafe conditions and exposed populations increasing more than tenfold. Our findings show that dangerous levels of heat stress will emerge within decades, underscoring the urgency of adaptation and the benefits of strong mitigation.

Indexed as

Climate changeExposureExtreme heatHeat stressSoutheast AsiaUTCIWBGT

Identifiers

PMID41461784
PMCPMC12756238

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.