ArticlePloS one2025
Impact of Chinese national centralized volume-based drug procurement policy on health costs and utilization: An interrupted time series analysis using panel data (2009-2022).
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Generic vs. brand-name pramipexole: effectiveness, safety, and cost comparison in a multicenter retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in aging neuroscience · 2026Article
- Changes in neonatal inpatient resource utilization and cost drivers under payment reform: a five-year retrospective real-world data study.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionChinese volume-based procurement (VBP) policy, implemented nationally in 2019, represents a cornerstone of healthcare reform aiming to reduce drug prices through centralized drug procurement. While existing studies have demonstrated the success of the VBP policy in lowering drug costs, comprehensive assessments of system-wide impacts on healthcare expenditures and service utilization remain underexplored. This study evaluates its effects on outpatient and inpatient service costs and volumes. MATERIALS AND
methodsWe conducted an interrupted time series analysis using panel data (2009-2022) from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and the China Statistical Yearbook. Primary outcomes included CPI(Consumer Price Index)-adjusted per-visit outpatient(OP)/inpatient(IP) expenditures, hospital OP rates, hospital IP rates, and length of stay. Segmented regression models quantified immediate and long-term policy effects, with two-stage meta-analysis evaluating regional heterogeneity. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: When the VBP implementation occurred, per-visit outpatient costs (β2 = 21.400, P < 0.001) and inpatient costs (β2 = 693.749, P = 0.006) showed an instantaneous increasing trend. The post-policy long-term trend was decreasing annually by 5.702 Chinese Yuan (CNY) (P < 0.001) for per-visit outpatient costs and 270.670 CNY (P = 0.012) for per-visit inpatient costs compared to the pre-policy period. Hospital OP rates immediately decreased by 0.510 visits (P < 0.001) while hospital IP rates dropped by 3.775 percentage points (P < 0.001), with length of stay increasing by 0.522 days (P < 0.001) immediately after the policy was implemented. Hospital OP rates had a modest increasing trend (β3 = 0.069, P = 0.046). Marked regional heterogeneity was observed (I² = 64.6-88.3%), with municipalities showing the most pronounced variations.
conclusionsChinese national centralized volume-based drug procurement policy has significantly reduced drug prices but initially increased non-drug costs. Regional disparities linked to aging demographics and complementary reforms (e.g., Diagnosis Related Group) shaped outcomes, while COVID-19 temporarily suppressed utilization. Future policy optimization should integrate Diagnosis Related Group payment reforms with regionally tailored strategies to balance cost containment and service quality. We recommend enhancing temporal resolution and extending observation periods to enable more precise policy evaluation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.