Trial reportBMJ open respiratory research2025
Development of a clinical prediction model for falls in individuals with COPD.
Trial report in BMJ open respiratory research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02995681 (Randomized Controlled Trial of Balance Training for Fall Reduction in Individuals With COPD), which is not on this map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Randomized Controlled Trial of Balance Training for Fall Reduction in Individuals With COPD
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is linked to an increased risk of falls, however, there is no accurate method for predicting falls in this population. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction model for falls in individuals with COPD.
methodsA secondary analysis was conducted using data from a recent fall prevention trial. Participants with COPD who reported a 12-month history of falls, concerns with balance or recent near falls were tracked for falls over 12 months prospectively. Baseline data included demographics and measures of balance, mobility and health status. A predictive model was developed using backward-selected multivariate logistic regression with fall status (no falls versus ≥1 fall) as the dependent variable and 17 baseline candidate predictors as independent variables. Using the bootstrap resampling method for internal validation, model performance was assessed for discrimination by the concordance (c) statistic and calibration by the expected to observed (E:O) ratio, calibration in the large (CITL) and calibration slope. The final model was adjusted for optimism using the bootstrap shrinkage factor.
resultsOf 178 participants (mean age 73±9 years; 83 females), 74 (42%) reported ≥1 fall over 12 months, totalling 188 falls. The predictive model identified three factors associated with 12-month future falls: reporting a 12-month history of ≥2 falls (OR=3.59, CI (1.65 to 7.82)), more chronic conditions (OR=1.14, CI (1.01 to 1.28)) and worse Timed Up and Go Dual-Task test scores (OR=1.04, CI (1.00 to 1.09)). The final prediction model achieved acceptable discrimination (c-statistic=0.69, CI (0.61 to 0.78)) and calibration (E:O ratio=1.01, CITL=-0.01 and calibration slope=0.93).
conclusionsA history of ≥2 falls, having more chronic conditions and impaired mobility under cognitive demand predicts future falls in individuals with COPD. The prediction model showed acceptable internal validation. External validation is needed to confirm these findings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02995681; clinicaltrials.gov.
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