ArticleVaccines2025
Modeling Outbreak Prediction and the Impact of Emergency Vaccination on the 2024-2025 Chikungunya Outbreak in La Réunion.
Article in Vaccines, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND/
objectivesAs of April 2025, La Réunion is facing a second major chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak, following the 2005-2006 epidemic that infected nearly one-third of the population. IXCHIQ
methodsA stochastic SEIR-SEI host-vector model was calibrated to weekly case counts (weeks 46/2024-7/2025). We projected the epidemic under three vaccination-trigger scenarios (≥100, ≥3000, ≥40,000 detected cases) and two incremental vector-control assumptions (10% and 20% reductions in biting rate). Several mosquito-related parameters-extrinsic incubation period, offspring number, and mortality rate-were temperature-dependent, based on daily temperatures in La Réunion. Vaccination was applied homogeneously, using a 14.5% coverage to reflect the proportion of the population targeted in the initial public health recommendation.
resultsOur findings indicate that without vaccination, up to 27.5% of the population could become infected. If vaccination would begin after 100 detected cases, 75% of infections could be prevented. Delaying until 3000 or 40,000 cases reduced effectiveness to 41% and 11%, respectively.
conclusionsOur results show that timely emergency vaccination can substantially reduce outbreak size. This underscores the importance of preparedness and rapid response by public health authorities in high-risk regions.
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