ArticleJournal of cardiovascular development and disease2025
Predictive Value of MELD Score and Charlson Comorbidity Index in Thoracic Aortic Surgery Patients.
Article in Journal of cardiovascular development and disease, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAAs) carry a high risk of fatal rupture, necessitating improved preoperative risk stratification. This study evaluates the predictive value of systemic risk scores-specifically the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI)-for in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and one-year mortality in patients undergoing elective ascending aortic surgery. The study further compares MELD variants (MELD-Na and MELD-XI) for their prognostic performance in this context. This retrospective single-center study analyzed digital medical records of 500 patients undergoing elective surgery for ascending thoracic aortic disease between 2003 and 2023. MELD, MELD-Na (incorporating sodium), and MELD-XI (excluding INR for anticoagulated patients) were calculated from preoperative laboratory data. The CCI was derived from documented comorbidities. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, length of stay (from admission to discharge), and one-year mortality assessed via outpatient follow-up. The study excluded patients undergoing emergency surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. MELD-Na incorporates serum sodium, while MELD-XI is a variant that excludes INR for patients with anticoagulation. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was derived from patients' medical histories prior to surgery. Length of stay was defined as total inpatient days between admission and discharge. One-year mortality was assessed via outpatient follow-up data. Loss to follow-up did not exceed 30%. Of 500 patients (median age 64 years, 72.8% male), the MELD-Na score showed the strongest ability to predict in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.698), outperforming both the standard MELD (AUC = 0.690) and the age-adjusted CCI (AUC = 0.631). For one-year mortality (N = 355), MELD-Na again performed best (AUC = 0.732), while the unadjusted CCI showed minimal predictive value (AUC = 0.509). Predictive power for hospital length of stay was limited across all scores; the age-adjusted CCI achieved the highest, though modest, discrimination (AUC = 0.627). 1-year mortality was assessed in 355 patients with available follow-up data (29.0% lost to follow-up). Among these, non-survivors had significantly higher MELD scores (
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