ArticleNature communications2025
The benefits of exploring a large scenario space for future energy systems.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Energy scenario analysis with optimization approaches rarely goes beyond a small number of scenarios. Disadvantages include limited coverage of uncertainties and assumptions, and a limited ability to provide robust policy advice. We present an approach that enables the multi-criterial evaluation of more than 11,000 scenarios and demonstrate it for the German power system. We vary both a wide range of input parameters and method choices. The resulting scenarios are assessed through a number of indicators on affordability, supply-security and sustainability. The most significant impacts on the results stem from considering multiple weather years. Furthermore, we estimate the number of runs required for robust energy systems analyses - well over 100 scenarios are needed. Nevertheless, fewer scenarios may be sufficient for limited scopes. Our analysis also underlines a challenge for future energy system design: cost-efficient decarbonization while conserving natural resources.
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Registered trials
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