Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41430486›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Development and evaluation of a machine learning model predicting out-of-hospital cardiac arrest using environmental factors.

Takahiro Nakashima, Soshiro Ogata, Eri Kiyoshige, Mohammad Z Al-Hamdan, Yifan Wang, Teruo Noguchi, Theresa A Shields, Rabab Al-Araji, Bryan McNally, Kunihiro Nishimura and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Takahiro Nakashima *Department of Emergency Medicine and the Max Harry Weil Institute for Critical Care Research and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. takana@med.umich.edu.
Soshiro Ogata *Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Centre, Suita, Japan.
Eri KiyoshigeDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Centre, Suita, Japan.
Mohammad Z Al-HamdanNational Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS, USA.
Yifan WangGangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Teruo NoguchiDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Centre, Suita, Japan.
Theresa A ShieldsDepartment of Emergency Medicine and the Max Harry Weil Institute for Critical Care Research and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Rabab Al-ArajiEmory University, Woodruff Health Sciences Center Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Bryan McNallyEmory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Kunihiro NishimuraDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Centre, Suita, Japan.
Robert W NeumarDepartment of Emergency Medicine and the Max Harry Weil Institute for Critical Care Research and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Development of an accurate system to predict the daily incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) might provide a significant public health benefit. We developed a machine learning model to predict daily OHCA incidence at the regional level using high-resolution meteorological data, chronological data, and sociodemographic data. Among OHCAs of non-traumatic cause, 196,735 in the training dataset (2013-2017), 119,455 in the testing dataset (2018-2019) from internal areas, and 37,160 in the testing dataset from external areas were included in the analysis. Application of invariant causal prediction (ICP) successfully reduced the number of variables to 17 while maintaining high predictive performance for nationwide incidence per 100,000 per day in both the training and testing datasets, whether from internal or external regions, comparable to the non-ICP model using the initial 34 variables. Furthermore, the prediction model retained a satisfactory performance up to seven days in advance.

Identifiers

PMID41430486
PMCPMC12749206

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.