Food industry degrowth as a public health strategy: the case of ultra processed baked goods.

Evidence associates ultra-processed food and beverage (UPF) diets to diverse non-communicable diseases, including obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and mental health disorders. Efforts to reformulate by reducing salt, sugar and unhealthy fats in such foods, have not changed the fact that UPFs are an increasing proportion of population diets. The UPF industry is rooted in growth – a fundamental logic at the heart of publicly traded and for-profit private corporations. Our longitudinal analysis of supermarket trade journals from the US and UK spanning 30 years finds that growth in this sector is not demand-led, but industry driven. Our analysis uncovers four dynamics of this growth paradigm, which we call combatition., swotification, the fashion spiral, and demand-pumping. Our findings show that, while public health policies result in individual products becoming more ‘healthy’, these benefits are likely to dwarfed by the aggregate (overall) growth of the UPF category itself. We propose a powerful counter paradigm: de-growth. While having gained recognition in ecological economics, we demonstrate its potential for public health, especially its concepts of decoupling and overproduction. While many public health interventions exist within a growth paradigm, a degrowth perspective proposes that the UPF industry cannot innovate its way out of health harms, and that the production of the entire category must decrease.