Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41429934›Full record

ArticleNature human behaviour2026

Large-scale mega-analysis indicates that serial dependence deteriorates perceptual decision-making.

Ayberk Ozkirli, Andrey Chetverikov, David Pascucci

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature human behaviour, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Ayberk OzkirliLaboratory of Psychophysics, Brain Mind Institute, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. ayberk.ozkirli@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-0882-4683
Andrey ChetverikovDepartment of Psychosocial Science, Faculty of Psychology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.ORCID 0000-0003-2767-6310
David PascucciLaboratory of Psychophysics, Brain Mind Institute, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1139-2586

Funding

Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) PZ00P1_179988Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) PZ00P1_179988/2
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

For over a century, research has shown that human perceptual decisions are systematically influenced by prior perceptual experiences, a phenomenon known as serial dependence. It has recently been suggested that serial dependence can improve perceptual decision-making by mitigating uncertainty and reducing variability in perceptual estimates-leading to a superiority effect. However, this claim remains largely untested. Here we present a large-scale analysis, compiling the most extensive dataset of serial dependence studies from the past decade. Contrary to the proposed superiority effect, our findings indicate that serial dependence deteriorates rather than improves perceptual decision-making. These results challenge prevailing models and emphasize the need to rethink serial dependence and its role in human perception, cognition and behaviour.

Indexed as

Decision MakingPerceptionHumansUncertainty

Identifiers

PMID41429934

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.