ArticleRevista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health2025
[Social determinants, the urban environment, and public safety policies: a spatial ecological and time-series analysis of Santiago de Cali, Colombia, 2015-2024Determinantes sociais, ambiente urbano e políticas de segurança: análise ecológica espacial e de séries temporais em Santiago de Cali, Colômbia, 2015-2024].
Article in Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: To estimate the association of social determinants, the urban environment, and public policies with the occurrence and evolution over time of homicides in Santiago de Cali, Colombia (2015-2024), to inform decision-making in public health and territorial planning. Methods: A mixed-methods approach was used. First, an ecological analysis of 2,264 neighborhood units using multivariable logistic regression evaluated the association between homicides and variables such as the multidimensional poverty index (MPI), unemployment, education, liquor-licensed establishments, and presence of state institutions between 2019 and 2024. Second, an interrupted time series (ITS) model and an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) time-series analysis were applied to analyze the effect of four municipal policies on the monthly homicide rate between 2010 and 2024. Results: The MPI (odds ratio [OR]:1.45; Conclusions: Homicidal violence in Cali is conditioned by structural inequalities and responds to specific municipal interventions. Policies can have immediate or sustained impacts. These findings allow for targeted resource allocation to critically affected territories, strengthening of community justice, and planning of intersectoral interventions on health, public safety, and development.
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