ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Global burden of varicella and herpes zoster across 204 countries, 1990-2021: a temporal trend analysis in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic and projections to 2036.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Current advances in the epidemiology, risk factors, prevention, management, and long-term outcomes of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Pooled it
- Global burden of varicella and herpes zoster in women of childbearing age: insights from the global burden of disease study 1990-2021.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026Article
- Genomic insights of first varicella zoster clade9 strain: a potential silent surge in Pakistan.Virus genes · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objective: To assess the temporal trends and regional disparities of the disease burden of varicella and herpes zoster across 204 countries from 1990 to 2021, analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic era, and project sex-specific incidence trends to 2036. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of varicella and herpes zoster. Joinpoint regression analysis identified significant shifts in temporal trends, treating 2019 as a key inflection point to observe the pandemic's impact. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to project future incidence trends. Analyses were stratified by region, sex, age, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and frontier analysis was applied to evaluate the efficiency of health burden management. Results: From 1990 to 2021, global varicella and herpes zoster cases increased by 19.0% (72.8 to 86.7 million), while age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) remained stable. Mortality and DALYs declined significantly, with age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and DALYs rates (ASDR) decreasing by 50.0 and 36.3%, respectively. A stark disparity remains, with low-SDI regions accounting for over 67% of deaths and DALYs. High-SDI regions, conversely, exhibited a resurgence in varicella and herpes zoster (ASIR: 1,300/100,000) driven by aging populations. The burden followed a U-shaped curve by age, with children <5 years having the highest incidence and adults ≥45 years facing elevated mortality. BAPC modeling projected gradual declines in ASIR for both sexes by 2036. Conclusion: The dual burdens of varicella and herpes zoster in low-SDI regions and aging-driven herpes zoster resurgence in high-SDI areas necessitate targeted strategies. These include prioritizing pediatric varicella immunization and equitable vaccine distribution in developing nations while enhancing adult herpes zoster booster programs and surveillance in developed ones to meet WHO 2030 targets.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.