Potential Distribution Modeling and Conservation Gap Identification for Rare and Endangered Plant Species: A Case Study of 10 Species in Hubei Province.

With the continuous increase in the demand for land and natural resources, driven by population growth and economic expansion, the conservation of rare and endangered species faces mounting pressure. Exploring how to achieve the target of conserving 30% of the global terrestrial area proposed by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is of great significance for biodiversity and species protection. This study employed a combined SDMs-InVEST modeling approach to predict the current and future potential distributions, habitat quality, and carbon storage of 10 protected plant species in Hubei Province. Using the high-potential distribution areas of these 10 species as conservation targets, combined with regions of high habitat quality and carbon storage, Marxan was applied to identify conservation gaps for these 10 protected plant species in Hubei Province. Results indicate that the province-wide mean Habitat Quality Index (HQI) is projected to increase gradually from 0.355 to 0.366, while spatial heterogeneity of HQI will become more pronounced-western mountainous areas show marked HQI improvements, whereas HQI around central-eastern urban agglomerations declines significantly. Total ecosystem carbon storage in Hubei is projected to rise from 2.11 × 10