ArticleClimate dynamics2026
Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates.
Article in Climate dynamics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Predictable modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a major influence on regional weather patterns, an important control on wildfire occurrence. Although these global climate modes have been associated with historical variability in wildfire occurrence in the United States and are used to forecast seasonal wildfire risk, precise information about the spatial pattern and magnitude of their influence is lacking and the satellite record of wildfires is too short to address these issues. Here we use wildfire occurrence model with a large ensemble of 1600 simulated years from EC-Earth3 in a recent climate (2000-2009) and a future climate corresponding to + 2 °C global warming, to characterise the impact of specific climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous US. We show that ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the 1-year lagged Tropical North Atlantic (TNA+1) have the greatest effect on annual fire occurrence-strongly contributed by the effect of these modes on hot, dry conditions in the Great Plains and precipitation in the southwestern US. El Niño is not significantly associated with wildfire occurrence in the northwestern US, contrary to expectation, but is associated with a later (earlier) wildfire season peak in the southwestern (southeastern) US. Under future warming, the AMO and PNA become a significant influence over most of the US, and the magnitude of impact of ENSO and TNA+1 increase strongly. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07998-w.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.