Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41423550›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir in reducing the risk of short-term and long-term cardiovascular complications of COVID-19: a target trial emulation study.

Zihao Guo, Yuchen Wei, Guozhang Lin, Katherine Min Jia, Christopher Boyer, Huwen Wang, Conglu Li, Chi Tim Hung, Carrie Ho Kwan Yam, Tsz Yu Chow and 7 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Zihao Guo *The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Yuchen Wei *The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Guozhang LinThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-5996-2927
Katherine Min JiaCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Christopher BoyerCleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1101-2045
Huwen WangDuke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
Conglu LiThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Chi Tim HungThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2103-8377
Carrie Ho Kwan YamThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Tsz Yu ChowThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Shi ZhaoSchool of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China. zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8722-6149
Kehang LiThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3778-7068
Aimin YangDepartment of Medicine & Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Chris Ka Pun MokThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0525-6772
David Sc HuiDepartment of Medicine & Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4382-2445
Eng Kiong YeohThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. yeoh_ek@cuhk.edu.hk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1721-9450
Ka Chun ChongThe Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. marc@cuhk.edu.hk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5610-1298

Funding

Food and Health Bureau of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region | Health and Medical Research Fund (HMRF) COVID190105, COVID19F03, INF-CUHK-1, COVID1903003
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While treatment with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir or molnupiravir is effective in lowering the rate of severe COVID-19, the effectiveness of these antivirals in reducing the risk of cardiovascular outcomes, especially among the hospitalized population, remains largely unknown. In this study, we assessed the real-world effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir on short- and long-term cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 using a target trial emulation design. Two target trials of COVID-19 antivirals were emulated by using a territory-wide, population-based, retrospective cohort of hospitalized patients in Hong Kong. Nine cardiovascular outcomes were evaluated in both short-term (day 0-21) and long-term (day 22-365) post-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Compared with the control group, the use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was associated with a significantly lower one-year risk of cardiovascular mortality, composite cardiovascular complications, major adverse cardiac events, cerebrovascular disorders, dysrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, and other cardiac disorders following infection. Molnupiravir use was associated with a short-term risk reduction in cardiovascular complications, but only a marginal risk reduction in long-term cardiovascular mortality among other complications. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in reducing the risks of short- and long-term cardiovascular complications following a SARS-CoV-2 infection among the hospitalized population. Our findings suggested health-related benefits of prescribing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir over molnupiravir against severe cardiovascular post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 in the long term.

Indexed as

Antiviral AgentsCardiovascular DiseasesCOVID-19COVID-19 Drug TreatmentCytidineHydroxylaminesPyrazolesRitonavirAdultAgedDrug CombinationsFemaleHong KongHumansLeucineMaleAntiviral AgentsCytidineDrug CombinationsHydroxylaminesLeucinemolnupiravirProlinePyrazolesRitonavir

Identifiers

PMID41423550
PMCPMC12847700

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.