ArticleEuropean geriatric medicine2026
Development and validation of a scoring system to predict hospitalization-associated disability in older patients with heart failure: a multicenter prospective registry.
Article in European geriatric medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeOlder patients with heart failure are vulnerable to hospitalization-associated disability (HAD). This study aimed to develop and validate a scoring system to predict the occurrence of HAD in these patients, enabling early risk assessment.
methodsThis study was a secondary analysis of the Japanese PT multicenter Registry of Older Frail patients with heart failure, a multicenter prospective cohort of heart failure patients aged 65 years and older. A predictive score for HAD was developed based on the beta coefficients of a logistic regression model in a development cohort. The score's performance was then evaluated in a validation cohort using C-statistics and calibration plots, comparing predicted probabilities with observed values.
resultsBased on the analysis of 9412 patients (median age 83 years, 49% female), a prediction scoring system (0-14 points) was developed. The final model included age, serum albumin, New York Heart Association class, preadmission functional independence, frailty, low muscle strength, and cognitive decline. The C-statistic was 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.70, p < 0.001) in the development cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.70, p < 0.001) in the validation cohort. The incidence of HAD significantly increased with higher score groups: 54.0% (high score, ≥ 10), 38.7% (moderate score, 5-9), and 12.8% (low score, < 4) (p < 0.001).
conclusionsA scoring system was developed to predict the occurrence of HAD in older patients with heart failure. This score can help identify high-risk patients early in hospitalization.
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