The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the career aspirations of adolescents in Romania: a longitudinal analysis.

Introduction: This study explores the evolving landscape of career aspirations among Romanian eighth-grade students by analyzing survey data collected both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Eighth-grade students were chosen for this study because they are at a critical educational crossroads, highly influenced by socio-economic and emotional factors, and their career aspirations, which evolved during the pandemic's effects on education, social interaction, and economic uncertainty, can be tracked over time for a longitudinal analysis. The research has three main objectives: first, to assess whether during the pandemic career uncertainty increased, foundational career optimism (defined by educational commitment) and strategic career planning (defined by mobility intentions) of Romanian adolescents were modified during the pandemic; second, to identify shifts in the perceived status of desired occupations using the International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI) and Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS); and third, to examine changes in students' intentions to study or work abroad. The first wave (n= 1 643) was conducted before the pandemic (December 2018-January 2019), while the second (May-June 2021, Methods: To test the research hypotheses and address the limitations of existing studies, we adopted a longitudinal design. Specifically, we compared data from three waves of the MERPAS survey (Educational Monitor of Results, Practices, and Attitudes in Schools of Bihor), conducted among eighth-grade students (aged 13-15) in the Bihor County of Romania. Results: The findings reveal an improvement in students' clarity regarding their career goals, as indicated by a higher proportion of valid responses about their desired professions. Additionally, the average occupational status, measured by the ISEI and SIOPS scales, showed a slight but statistically significant increase during the pandemic. The data also indicates a notable decline in students' intentions to pursue educational or professional opportunities abroad. Discussion: The findings suggest that Romanian adolescents, unlike peers in other international studies, did not experience a decline in career optimism or an increase in uncertainty. Instead, the pandemic appears to have prompted a rational reassessment of career trajectories. Framed by human capital theory, the results indicate that adolescents responded to the "career shock" of the pandemic by increasing their investment in "safe" high-status professions requiring higher education (hence the rise in ISEI/SIOPS scores) while simultaneously reducing exposure to the health and logistical risks of international mobility. This highlights the critical role of local socio-economic context in mediating the pandemic's impact on youth career aspirations.