ArticleAmerican journal of translational research2025
Risk factors for heart failure within one year after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome: development of a predictive model.
Article in American journal of translational research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo identify risk factors for heart failure (HF) within one year after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to develop a predictive nomogram model.
methodsA retrospective analysis was performed on 492 patients with ACS treated at Suzhou Municipal Hospital between January 2020 and October 2023. Patients were divided into the HF group and the non-HF group according to the occurrence of HF within one year after PCI. 70% of the cases were randomly assigned to the training set and 30% to the validation set. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to screen independent predictors, and a nomogram model was subsequently established. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsAmong the 492 patients, the incidence of HF within one year after PCI was 26.42% (n = 130). Logistic regression identified type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), lipoprotein(a) [LP(a)], B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (Hs-CRP) as independent predictors of HF, with odds ratios of 5.756, 0.904, 1.427, 1.012, and 1.666, respectively (all P < 0.05). The model demonstrated excellent discrimination, with areas under the ROC curve of 0.946 in the training set and 0.958 in the validation set. DCA indicated that the model provided greater net clinical benefit than the "treat-all" or "treat-none" strategies, and its predictive performance surpassed that of each individual factor (P < 0.05).
conclusionThe nomogram model incorporating T2DM, LVEF, LP(a), BNP and Hs-CRP provides an effective tool for predicting HF risk within one year after PCI in patients with ACS, offering valuable guidance for early clinical identification and risk stratification of high-risk individuals.
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