Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41413724›Full record

SynthesisAnnals of clinical and translational neurology2026

Bayesian Estimation Improves Prediction of Outcomes After Epilepsy Surgery.

Adam S Dickey, Vineet Reddy, Ammar A Rashied, Nigel P Pedersen, Robert T Krafty

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Annals of clinical and translational neurology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Reusable Instrumentation for Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repair May Not Impact Clinical Outcomes.Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Global research & reviews · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Adam S DickeyDepartment of Neurology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4710-1290
Vineet ReddyDepartment of Industrial Engineering & Operations Research, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Ammar A RashiedDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Nigel P PedersenDepartment of Neurology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8494-0635
Robert T KraftyDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1478-6430

Funding

Implementing a Maternal health and PRegnancy Outcomes Vision for Everyone (IMPROVE)UL1TR002378 · NCATS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Andres J Garcia, Elizabeth O. Ofili · 2017 to 2026
$92.1M
Institutional Career Development CoreKL2TR002381 · NCATS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI HENRY M BLUMBERG, Anandi Nayan Sheth · 2017 to 2026
$14.1M
A Statistical Framework for the Spectral Analysis of High-Dimensional Physiological Time Series SignalsR01GM113243 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI KRAFTY, ROBERT T · 2014 to 2020
$2.0M
Investigations of Spatial Recognition Memory to Improve Cognitive Outcomes in Epilepsy SurgeryR01NS144894 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI Nigel Paul Pedersen · 2025 to 2026
$1.3M
Control of the Hippocampal Formation by the Supramammillary Hypothalamus - Anatomy, Physiology and in a Model of Medial Temporal Lobe EpilepsyK08NS105929 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI PEDERSEN, NIGEL PAUL · 2018 to 2023
$963k
Sleep-Wake and Epilepsy Interactions in a Mouse Model of Temporal Lobe EpilepsR21NS122011 · NINDS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI PEDERSEN, NIGEL PAUL · 2021 to 2021
$430k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR002381NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002378NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM113243NIH HHSNINDS NIH HHS K08 NS105929NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS144894NINDS NIH HHS R21 NS122011
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We estimated the statistical power of studies predicting seizure freedom after epilepsy surgery. We extracted data from a Cochrane meta-analysis. The median power across all studies was 14%. Studies with a median sample size or less (n ≤ 56) and a statistically significant result exaggerated the true effect size by a factor of 5.4, while the Bayesian estimate of the odds ratio only exaggerated the true effect size by a factor of 1.6. We conclude that Bayesian estimation of odds ratios attenuates the exaggeration of significant effect sizes in underpowered studies. This result could improve interpretation of studies with small sample sizes.

Indexed as

EpilepsyNeurosurgical ProceduresOutcome Assessment, Health CareBayes TheoremHumansBayesianEngel outcomeepilepsy surgeryseizure freedomstatistical power

Identifiers

PMID41413724
PMCPMC12968459

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.