Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41409667›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2025

Implementation of an Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) Machine-Learning Phenotype in Real-Time for the ADAPT Project.

Huan Li, Mark Iscoe, John Lutz, Carolina Diniz Hopper, Sabrina Fried, Josue Minaya, Caroline Raymond King, Olga Reykhart, Hyung Paek, Daniella Meeker and 2 more

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Huan LiDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7541-7052
Mark IscoeDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
John LutzDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Carolina Diniz HopperDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Sabrina FriedDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Josue MinayaDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Caroline Raymond KingDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Olga ReykhartDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Hyung PaekBiomedical Informatics and Data Science, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Daniella MeekerBiomedical Informatics and Data Science, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Edward R MelnickDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6509-9537
R Andrew TaylorBiomedical Informatics and Data Science, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.

Funding

ADAPT: Adaptive Decision support for Addiction TreatmentR33DA059884 · NIDA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Edward Robert Melnick · 2023 to 2026
$4.8M
NIDA NIH HHS R33 DA059884
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: Develop and deploy a real time, EHR integrated machine learning phenotype to identify emergency department (ED) patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) for prospective clinical trial screening and buprenorphine initiation. Materials and Methods: We conducted a multi phase study across three EDs in a single United States health system from 2014 to 2025. Using visit level data available at or before triage, we trained a random forest classifier to estimate OUD risk and embedded scoring in the EHR to trigger point of care alerts for trial eligibility review. A computable silver standard label supported retrospective development; a clinician gold standard reference was established via structured, DSM 5-aligned chart review. Performance was summarized with ROC/PR AUC, calibration, and threshold based classification metrics; prospective validation used a stratified random sample of flagged and unflagged encounters. Results: Retrospective discrimination compared to the silver standard was high (ROC AUC 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-0.99; PR AUC 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.94), and calibration plots informed operating point selection for real time use. In prospective gold standard validation (n=218), the positive predictive value was 98.28%, and the negative predictive value was 95.68% at the prespecified threshold. Discussion and Conclusion: An EHR embedded, machine-learning phenotype can accurately and feasibly identify ED patients with OUD in real time, streamlining clinical trial enrollment and treatment initiation. Ongoing work will report operational metrics (e.g., alert volume and latency), monitor performance drift and equity across subgroups, and evaluate downstream clinical and trial outcomes.

Identifiers

PMID41409667
PMCPMC12706623

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.