ArticleBMC ecology and evolution2025
Climate change is leading to geographic expansion of tropical birds-range expansion and niche modeling in the White-browed Crake (Pololimnas cinereus).
Article in BMC ecology and evolution, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundThe White-browed Crake (Pololimnas cinereus, family: Rallidae, hereafter WbC) is a climate sensitive bird with a tropical/subtropical distribution in Southeast Asia, Australasia, and the Philippines. Range expansion into higher latitudes would be predicted for this species in a warming climate. In this study, we first photographed a WbC in a park of Motuo County on the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Then we compiled geographic data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to illustrate its distribution characteristics. We also used a MaxEnt model to simulate its global suitable range under different future climate change scenarios.
resultsThe results showed: (1) this observation constitutes a new distributional record of the WbC on the Tibetan Plateau. This expanded northern boundary (29°19'25.40″N) increased the latitudinal limit of the species by 171.58 km. (2) The coldest monthly minimum temperature, the wettest seasonal precipitation, and the human footprint index were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of WbC, the rise in the coldest monthly minimum temperature has facilitated the expansion of the WbC's habitat. (3) Future climate warming will lead to a significant increase of suitable areas for WbC, with its distribution center shifting 196.11 km and 153.80 km towards northwest in 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Under the scenarios for the 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, the globally suitable distribution range of the WbC might expand by 1,125,400 km² and 1,275,200 km², respectively. In China, the corresponding expansion was 27,500 km² and 29,200 km², respectively, mainly distributed in Guangdong, Yunnan, Taiwan, Guangxi, Hainan, Xizang, and Fujian provinces.
conclusionsThe WbC photographed in Motuo County is a new distribution record of this species on the Tibetan Plateau, with Motuo County in Xizang being the northernmost boundary of the current WbC range. The wettest seasonal precipitation, and the human footprint index were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the WbC. Under future climate change scenarios, the WbC's range is expanding rapidly, and tends to dispersal in a northwesterly direction.
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