Spatiotemporal evolution of carbon sequestration and the impact of key drivers under multiple SSP-RCP scenarios in the Yangtze River economic belt.

Carbon sequestration (CS), a key component of climate change mitigation and carbon neutrality efforts, is strongly influenced by land use/land cover change (LUCC). However, the spatiotemporal evolution of CS in response to future LUCC trajectories under urbanization remains underexplored. Therefore, this study focuses on the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), a region characterized by rapid urbanization and high carbon emissions, and develops an integrated SD-PLUS-InVEST modelling framework to evaluate the impacts of LUCC under three SSP-RCP scenarios on regional CS dynamics. Results show that, cropland is projected to decline by 5%, 10%, and 3%, while forestland increases by 8%, 3%, and 5% under SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5, and SSP2-4.5, respectively. Correspondingly, CS shows a 12% increase under SSP1-2.6, an 8% decrease under SSP5-8.5, and a moderate enhancement under SSP2-4.5. The XGBoost-SHAP analysis quantified the impacts of key drivers, revealing that elevated temperature and population growth are strongly correlated with declines in CS, while economic growth is positively correlated with enhanced CS capacity. This research provides valuable insights into how LUCC affects CS under varying development scenarios, offering actionable guidance for formulating regional land-use policies that promote CS and contribute to climate mitigation.