Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41400997›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025

Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events.

Christopher W Callahan, Jared T Trok, Andrew J Wilson, Carlos F Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Marshall Burke, Noah S Diffenbaugh

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  2. Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Christopher W CallahanDepartment of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.ORCID 0000-0002-8819-9442
Jared T TrokDepartment of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Andrew J WilsonCenter on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Carlos F GouldSchool of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093.ORCID 0000-0002-7736-3905
Sam Heft-NealCenter on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.ORCID 0000-0002-9129-2365
Marshall BurkeCenter on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.ORCID 0000-0003-4288-5858
Noah S DiffenbaughDepartment of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.ORCID 0000-0002-8856-4964

Funding

N/A N/A
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding the mortality effects of the most extreme heat events is central to climate change risk analysis and adaptation decision-making. Accurate representation of these impacts requires accounting for the effects of prolonged sequences of hot days on mortality, the change in that mortality due to anthropogenic forcing, and the potential compensating effects of adaptation to heat. Here, we revisit the August 2003 heat wave in France, a canonical event in a region with rich climate and mortality data, to understand these influences. We find that standard heat-mortality exposure-response functions underpredict excess deaths in August 2003 by 55% but that accounting for the temporally compounding effects of hot days better matches observed mortality. After accounting for compounding effects and applying a machine learning approach to single-event climate attribution, we attribute 6,079 deaths in August 2003 to climate change. Finally, we show that recent adaptation to heat in France has reduced the projected death tolls of future 2003-like events by more than 75%.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeExtreme HeatMortalityAdaptation, BiologicalForecastingFranceHumansMachine Learningclimate attributionextreme heathealth impacts

Identifiers

PMID41400997
PMCPMC12745773

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.