Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41398855›Full record

ArticleMedicine2025

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors in young adults, 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2040: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Guokun Sun, Yating Wen, Xiaojing Han, Qiao Wang, Yunli Wang, Yi Mao, Xiaolu Sun, Yan Zhai, Yaru Wen, Xiaoqing Han

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Guokun SunDepartment of Intensive Care Medicine, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yating WenDepartment of Spine Degeneration and Oncology, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Xiaojing HanObstetrics Medical Center, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Qiao WangDepartment of Spine Degeneration and Oncology, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yunli WangDepartment of General Surgery, The 80th Group Army Hospital of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yi MaoDepartment of Spine Degeneration and Oncology, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Xiaolu SunDepartment of Spine Degeneration and Oncology, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yan ZhaiHealth Management Center, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Yaru WenDepartment of Clinical Medicine, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, China.
Xiaoqing HanDepartment of Spine Degeneration and Oncology, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong, China.ORCID 0009-0006-2811-1812

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors is a significant global public health burden, showing an increasing trend among young adults aged 24 to 49 years. This group, who are at the peak of their career development and family obligations, has received limited research attention despite its critical role in societal development. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors in young adults from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2040, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, to inform targeted prevention and management strategies. Data for this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2021. The analysis focused on trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in disease burden were calculated over the study period. Future trends in disease burden up to 2040 were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Frontier analysis was conducted to explore potential improvement opportunities and disparities across countries categorized by development level. The analyses were stratified by gender, 21 GBD regions, 204 nations/territories, and 5 SDI quintiles. Statistical analyses and plot illustrations were conducted using the R statistical package (version 4.4.2). The global burden of diabetes mellitus due to metabolic factors exhibits significant regional variations, which are closely linked to sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined, while the age-standardized disability rate (ASDR) increased from 1990 to 2021. The BAPC model predicts an increasing burden of mortality and DALYs over the next 2 decades. Meanwhile, frontier analysis reveals substantial room for improvement across all levels of development. Management of metabolic factors remains a major challenge for young people with diabetes mellitus, and targeted clinical guidelines are needed.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusGlobal Burden of DiseaseAdultBayes TheoremCost of IllnessDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal HealthHumansMaleMiddle AgedYoung Adultdiabetes mellitusGlobal Disease Burdenmetabolic factorsYoung adults

Identifiers

PMID41398855
PMCPMC12708187

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.