Infant mortality rates in Ghana: progress toward sustainable development goal 3.

Infant mortality remains a critical measure of national health performance and socio-economic development. In Ghana, despite sustained public health interventions, infant mortality rates (IMRs) continue to reflect persistent inequalities and systemic challenges. This study models historical trends in Ghana’s IMR from 1960 to 2022 and provides forecasts up to 2030 to support data-driven health planning. Using annual data from the World Development Indicators, an ARIMA model was used to analyze the time series. After achieving stationarity through first-order differencing, the ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model was selected as the best based on AIC, BIC, and AICC criteria. The results reveal a consistently decreasing trend in infant mortality, with projections showing a decline from 30.68 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023 to 24.68 per 1,000 live births by 2030. Forecast accuracy was confirmed with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.079 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.657. However, the projected rate remains slightly below the SDG 3 target for under-five mortality but still exceeds the target for neonatal mortality. The study concludes that while progress has been made, the current pace of improvement is insufficient. It calls for strengthened, equity-focused health strategies and demonstrates the value of ARIMA modeling as a practical tool for forecasting and policy planning in low- and middle-income countries.