Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41397256›Full record

ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2026

Eligibility and Prognostic Performance of Smoking Duration-Based Versus Pack-Year-Based U.S. National Lung Cancer Screening Criteria Across Racial and Ethnic Groups.

Chloe C Su, Victoria Y Ding, Kevin Ten Haaf, Julie T Wu, Neal D Freedman, Leah M Backhus, Ann N Leung, Natalie S Lui, Christopher A Haiman, Sung-Shim Lani Park and 8 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Chloe C SuDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, and Quantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (C.C.S.).ORCID 0000-0002-2204-3314
Victoria Y DingQuantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (V.Y.D.).ORCID 0000-0002-2049-9051
Kevin Ten HaafDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (K.t.H.).ORCID 0000-0001-5006-6938
Julie T WuVeterans Affairs Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, California (J.T.W.).ORCID 0000-0003-2388-1827
Neal D FreedmanDivision of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (N.D.F.).ORCID 0000-0003-0074-1098
Leah M BackhusDepartment of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (L.M.B., N.S.L.).ORCID 0000-0002-4553-1003
Ann N LeungDepartment of Radiology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (A.N.L.).
Natalie S LuiDepartment of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (L.M.B., N.S.L.).ORCID 0000-0002-6602-6372
Christopher A HaimanCenter for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California (C.A.H.).
Sung-Shim Lani ParkPopulation Sciences in the Pacific Program, University of Hawai'i Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawai'i (S.-S.L.P., L.L.M.).
Joel W NealDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, and Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (J.W.N., H.A.W.).ORCID 0000-0003-3119-9334
Rafael MezaDepartment of Integrative Oncology, BC Cancer Research Institute, and School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (R.M.).
Martin C TammemägiDepartment of Health Sciences, Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada (M.C.T.).ORCID 0000-0002-4989-5058
Iona ChengDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (I.C.).
Loïc Le MarchandPopulation Sciences in the Pacific Program, University of Hawai'i Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawai'i (S.-S.L.P., L.L.M.).
Heather A WakeleeDivision of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, and Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (J.W.N., H.A.W.).ORCID 0000-0003-1136-980X
Eunji ChoiDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, New York (E.C.).ORCID 0000-0003-1315-1433
Summer S HanDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine; Quantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University School of Medicine; Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine; and Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (S.S.H.).ORCID 0000-0002-2013-6883

Funding

Evaluation of genetic, clinical, and environmental risk factors to establish effective screening strategies for second primary lung cancerR37CA226081 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI HAN, SUMMER S · 2018 to 2024
$4.3M
Integrating Multiple Electronic Health Records Systems to Improve Lung Cancer OutcomesR01CA282793 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Summer S Han · 2023 to 2026
$2.6M
HSRD VA IK2 HX003949NCI NIH HHS R01 CA282793NCI NIH HHS R37 CA226081
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe U.S. Preventive Services Task Force expanded lung cancer (LC) screening eligibility in 2021 (USPSTF-2021) by decreasing the minimum number of smoking pack-years from 30 to 20. Underrepresented minorities still experience disparities in screening eligibility.

objectiveTo evaluate screening eligibility and prognostic performance of alternative smoking duration-based criteria versus USPSTF-2021 (primary outcome) and risk-based screening using the recalibrated Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 (PLCOm2012

designProspective, population-based Multiethnic Cohort linked to SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) registries.

settingCalifornia and Hawai'i, with recruitment from 1993 to 1996.

participants105 261 adults aged 45 to 75 years with a history of smoking. MEASUREMENTS: Hypothetical eligibility and prognostic performance (sensitivity and specificity) in detecting 6-year LC.

resultsUnder USPSTF-2021, 24.0% of the cohort would be eligible for screening; a 30-year smoking duration yielded the closest eligibility rate (27.5%). Compared with USPSTF-2021, the 30-year duration criteria would reduce eligibility gaps across all races relative to Whites, most notably in African Americans (30.4% vs. 28.8% for Whites under duration-based; 21.4% vs. 30.2% for Whites under USPSTF-2021) and Latinos (25.1% vs. 28.8% for Whites under duration-based; 15.7% vs. 30.2% for Whites under USPSTF-2021). Prognostic sensitivity to identify LC within 6 years increased across all races under the 30-year duration criteria, although specificity decreased commensurately. At matched overall eligibility (27.5%), a risk-based PLCOm2012 LIMITATIONS: Cohort geography and enrollment period may limit generalizability. Overdiagnosis was not measured.

conclusionCompared with USPSTF-2021, the 30-year duration-based criteria could reduce the eligibility gaps among African Americans and Latinos relative to Whites while improving 6-year LC detection sensitivity across all races. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Indexed as

Early Detection of CancerEligibility DeterminationLung NeoplasmsSmokingAgedCaliforniaEthnicityFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProspective StudiesRacial GroupsSEER ProgramSensitivity and Specificity

Identifiers

PMID41397256
PMCPMC13010555

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.