Fertility Intentions in Rural Malawi After Cyclone Idai.

Environmental disruptions such as extreme weather events can intensify household uncertainty by creating financial, marital, and housing instability. In this paper, we draw on unique interview data to advance knowledge of fertility intentions and the role of environmentally induced uncertainty in shaping them. We use in-depth interviews collected in rural Malawi in July 2019 to examine the motivations behind fertility intentions at a moment of heightened uncertainty, the months following the destruction brought by Cyclone Idai. Among respondents with children, the majority planned to wait at least four years before having another child. From the narratives of parents' reproductive plans, we develop a typology of respondents who prefer long inter-birth intervals. Analyses reveal that some respondents' motivations are consistent with traditional spacing intentions, whereas others reflect their fundamental uncertainty about the future and the chances of regaining economic and household stability in a natural-resource contingent context. Our results are foundational for building theory to understand the relationship between environmental forces and fertility.