ArticleSpine surgery and related research2025
Long-Term Prognosis and Risk Factors for Low Back Pain-Related Disorders in the General Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up of the Wakayama Spine Study.
Article in Spine surgery and related research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Investigating predictors of pain events during trials of knee osteoarthritis: A post-hoc analysis of two phase III trials.Osteoarthritis and cartilage open · 2026Article
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15 authors.
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Abstract
Introduction: Low back pain (LBP) is a leading cause of disability worldwide, particularly in aging populations. While the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is widely used to assess LBP-related disability, few studies have evaluated its long-term trajectory and predictive factors in general populations. Methods: This 7-year longitudinal study included 553 community-dwelling adults (mean age 66.3 years) from the Wakayama Spine Study, a population-based sub-cohort of the Research on Osteoarthritis/Osteoporosis against Disability (ROAD) study. Participants completed whole-spine magnetic resonance imaging and responded to the ODI questionnaire at baseline and follow-up. Disability levels were classified as mild (0%-20%), moderate (21%-40%), or severe (41%-60%). Longitudinal transitions in disability categories were analyzed descriptively. Multiple linear regression was used to identify predictors of ODI deterioration. Results: The mean ODI score significantly increased from 9.6±11.5 at baseline to 12.2±14.2 after 7 years (p<0.001), although the change did not reach clinical significance. Among participants initially classified as mildly disabled (n=468), 88.0% remained stable, while 12.0% worsened. Of those with moderate disability (n=73), 35.6% improved, 44.0% remained unchanged, and 20.5% worsened. No participant with severe disability (n=40) improved to mild. Female sex, older age, higher body mass index, and vertebral fractures (semiquantitative grade ≥2) were significant predictors of worsening disability (p<0.05). Higher baseline ODI was inversely associated with deterioration. Conclusions: In this population-based cohort, LBP-related disability modestly worsened over 7 years. Older adults, women, individuals with obesity, and those with vertebral fractures were at greatest risk. These findings support early intervention and screening strategies to prevent disability progression in at-risk populations.
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