Radiogenomic MRI biomarkers for noninvasive prediction of GPC3 expression and tumor microenvironment in hepatocellular carcinoma.

backgroundGlypican-3 (GPC3) is frequently overexpressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and plays a key role in immune and metabolic remodeling of the tumor microenvironment. Reliable noninvasive biomarkers for predicting GPC3 status could improve patient stratification and support precision immunotherapy.

methodsThis multicenter retrospective study included 274 patients with pathologically confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma from three institutions, 34 external cases with MRI from The Cancer Imaging Archive, and 363 transcriptomic profiles from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging and diffusion-weighted imaging were analyzed. Tumor and peritumoral regions were segmented manually and radiomic features extracted using PyRadiomics. Feature selection was performed with correlation filtering and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Machine learning classifiers including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and decision tree were trained with 10-fold cross-validation and tested on independent external cohorts. A radiomics score was calculated for each patient. Radiogenomic analysis correlated radiomics scores with transcriptomic data using weighted gene co-expression network analysis. Hub genes and enriched pathways were identified, and immune infiltration and predicted immunotherapy response were assessed using computational methods.

resultsThe random forest model using contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging achieved an area under the curve of 0.966 in training and 0.935 in internal validation. The integrated contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging plus diffusion-weighted imaging model reached an internal validation area under the curve of 0.979. In external testing, the best performance was obtained with a support vector machine model (area under the curve 0.756). Radiomics scores were significantly correlated with GPC3 expression (R = 0.78, p < 0.05). Transcriptomic analysis identified a 10-gene signature enriched in hypoxia and lipid metabolism pathways that stratified patients into prognostic subgroups (concordance index 0.720, hazard ratio 4.07, p < 0.0001). High-risk patients had greater immune infiltration and a lower predicted immune evasion score, suggesting a potential benefit from immunotherapy.

conclusionsMRI-based radiomics models can noninvasively predict GPC3 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma. Radiomics scores reflect underlying hypoxia and lipid metabolism pathways and stratify patients by prognosis and predicted immunotherapy response. These findings support radiogenomics as a translational approach to imaging-guided precision treatment in hepatocellular carcinoma.