ArticlePloS one2025
Global trends and future predictions of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2030: A comparative analysis of China, Korea, Japan, and the USA.
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Statin Use and Site-Specific Cancer Risk: A Nationwide Cohort Study Using Korean Health Insurance Data.Journal of lipid and atherosclerosis · 2026Article
- Current burden, incidence trends, and future projections of pancreatic cancer in adults worldwide.Journal of global health · 2026Article
- Giant Pancreatic Acinar Cell Carcinoma: A Case Report and Review of Molecular Pathogenesis and Emerging Therapies.Cureus · 2026Article
- Pancreatoduodenectomy for Pancreatic Cancer after Prior Modified Puestow Procedure: A Case Report.Surgical case reports · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally, with rapidly increasing incidence and mortality rates in several regions. This study provides a comparative analysis of pancreatic cancer trends in China, Korea, Japan, and the USA, and projects these trends through 2030.
methodsData from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used to examine trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2020. Joinpoint regression and age-period cohort (APC) models were employed to assess temporal trends. Future predictions of ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs were generated using predictive modeling to extend the analysis to 2030.
resultsThe study found that Japan and the USA have the highest incidence and mortality rates for pancreatic cancer, with predicted ASIR values expected to exceed 15 per 100,000 in Japan by 2030. Mortality trends follow a similar pattern, with males consistently showing higher ASMR than females across all regions. China is expected to see continued growth in DALYs, particularly among males, while Korea exhibits stable or slightly declining trends. The longitudinal age curves indicate that pancreatic cancer rates rise significantly with age, especially in individuals over 65 years. By 2030, Japan and the USA are projected to experience the greatest increase in pancreatic cancer burden, while Korea's trends remain relatively stable.
conclusionsPancreatic cancer continues to pose a significant public health challenge, particularly in aging populations. The predicted rise in incidence, mortality, and DALYs in Japan and the USA calls for urgent implementation of targeted screening and prevention strategies, particularly for older age groups and high-risk populations.
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