Global trends in the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to household air pollution.

Background: Tracheal, bronchial, and lung (TBL) cancers, largely attributable to household air pollution (HAP), remain a critical public health challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, this study evaluates global trends in HAP-related TBL cancer burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends to 2051. Methods: The study extracted data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the GBD 2021 and assessed the burden of TBL cancer attributable to HAP by sex, age, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The age-period-cohort (APC) model examined the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted future trends over the next 30 years. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, deaths and DALYs from TBL cancer due to HAP decreased by 39.2% and 44.1%, respectively, with the largest declines in high SDI regions, while rates increased in Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa. The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) peaked in the 85-89 years age group, and the age-standardized disability rate (ASDR) peaked in the 70-74 years age group. Males experienced a higher burden than females, with significant differences observed across SDI regions. Projections suggest that mortality and DALYs rates will rise over the next 30 years, with a higher burden forecast for females. Conclusions: Despite significant reductions, TBL cancer from HAP remains a major issue in low SDI regions, particularly in China. Projections indicate increasing mortality and DALYs rates over the next 30 years, disproportionately affecting women, highlighting the urgent need for targeted policies to reduce HAP exposure.