ArticleJournal of thoracic disease2025
Epidemiological burden and mortality of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in Brazil: historical trends and future outlook.
Article in Journal of thoracic disease, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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9 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and fatal interstitial lung disease with increasing clinical and epidemiological relevance. While global mortality trends have been well documented, long-term national-level data from middle-income countries are limited. This study aimed to characterize IPF-related mortality in Brazil over a 28-year period and to estimate national prevalence, incidence, and future trends. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, population-based analysis of national mortality data from Brazil's public health system (DATASUS) from 1996 to 2023. IPF-related deaths were identified using ICD-10 code J84.1. Mortality trends were stratified by sex, ethnicity, and age. Odds ratios (ORs) by sex were calculated annually. IPF prevalence and incidence in 2023 were estimated using survival-based modeling (3-10 years), and linear projections were used to forecast mortality trends through 2028. Results: A total of 61,518 IPF-related deaths were recorded. Annual deaths increased from 1,021 in 1996 to 3,778 in 2023, with an average annual growth of 5.2%, surpassing trends in respiratory (2.5%) and all-cause mortality (1.9%). Most deaths occurred in individuals aged ≥70 years (69%), and 67.4% were among White individuals. Although absolute mortality was slightly higher among females, men had consistently higher odds of IPF-related death (OR range, 1.03-1.54). Estimated IPF prevalence in 2023 ranged from 9,800 to 30,900 individuals, depending on survival assumptions. Projections indicate continued increases in mortality through 2028. Conclusions: IPF-related mortality in Brazil has more than tripled since 1996, reflecting both improved diagnostic capacity and population aging. However, demographic disparities by sex and ethnicity persist. These findings underscore the urgent need to strengthen national disease registries, expand early diagnostic programs, and improve access to antifibrotic therapy to address the growing burden of IPF in Brazil.
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