ArticlePloS one2025
Global burden and future projections of non-communicable diseases (2000-2050): Progress toward SDG 3.4 and disparities across regions and risk factors.
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Application of Large Language Models in Chronic Disease Care: Mixed Methods Systematic Review and Thematic Synthesis.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Pooled it
- The quintuple aim as a framework for health system performance: a systematic review of empirical applications.BMC health services research · 2026Pooled it
- Trial
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- A Comparative Analysis of National Health Strategies and Policy Documents in Selected Latin American and African Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Review
- Targeting Reduced Glutathione (GSH) to Promote Metabolic Health: Insights on the Role of Bioactive-Rich Foods and Fasting Protocols.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Sodium Content of Street and Restaurant Foods in Nigeria: A Multilevel Analysis of Food System Determinants.Nutrients · 2026Article
- Health Literacy, Social Support and Quality of Life in Chinese Health Examination Population.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A Two-Stage Cascaded Regression Framework for Automatic Facial Acupoint Localization in Infrared Thermal Images.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Nonlinear modeling of health checkup factors and future claims-based healthcare costs in Japan: a retrospective cohort study.Health economics review · 2026Article
- Review
- Flavonoids as Nutraceuticals to Treat Inflammatory Diseases: Focusing on Quercetin, Kaempferol, Luteolin, Apigenin, Epicatechin and Their Effects on Hepatic, Nervous, and Pulmonary Systems.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Assessing Europe's policy readiness to confront the MASLD/MASH public health threat.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2026Review
- Bayesian multilevel analysis of multimorbidity among women in Somalia: prevalence, patterns, and determinants.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Ginkgetin: A Promising Multitarget Agent for Diverse Diseases.Biomolecules · 2026Review
- Breastfeeding in Infancy and Adult Health: A Narrative Review.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Shared mechanisms linking PMFrontiers in sleep · 2026Review
- Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), and diabetes mellitus (DM), are the leading cause of death globally and a major health challenge, threatening Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4 to reduce premature mortality by one-third by 2030. The study aimed to quantify the current and projected burden of these NCDs, assess disparities, and identify prevention opportunities.
methodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the study analysed incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CVDs, neoplasms, CRDs, and DM from 2000 to 2021, with projections to 2050. Trends were stratified by time, WHO region, Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), gender, and country, alongside risk factor contributions (metabolic, behavioural, environmental). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent changes (AAPC) were calculated to assess trajectories.
resultsIn 2021, NCDs accounted for 12·4 billion incident cases (rate: 156,680·64 per 100,000), 43·8 million deaths (64·5% of total, rate: 554·63 per 100,000), and 1·73 billion DALYs (59·9%, rate: 21,887·11 per 100,000). CVDs led with 19·4 million deaths (28·6%), followed by neoplasms (9·9 million, 14·6%), CRDs (4·4 million, 6·5%), and DM (1·7 million, 2·4%). From 2000-2021, DM incidence rose sharply (AAPC: 2·41%), while CVD mortality increased slightly (AAPC: 0·21%). High SDI regions showed peak DM incidence (461·41 per 100,000), Europe led CVD mortality (419·62), and males had higher CVD deaths (258·55 vs 233·41). Projections estimate 75·5 million deaths and 2·44 billion DALYs by 2050, driven by CVDs (86·1% of deaths). Metabolic risks like hypertension dominated CVD burdens.
conclusionsThe NCD burden's rapid rise, marked disparities, and projected escalation demand urgent, equity-focused prevention. Tailored strategies, targeting metabolic risks, gender gaps, and regional inequities, are critical to achieve SDG 3.4 and mitigate this global crisis by 2050.
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