Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41368007›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2025

Trends in smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa/New Zealand among 14-15-year-olds identifying as Māori, Pacific, European, or Asian: an interrupted time series analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 2003-2024.

Sam Egger, Andrew Waa, Michael David, Judith McCool, Lucy Hardie, Marianne F Weber, Qingwei Luo, Jamie Egger, Becky Freeman

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Sam EggerThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Andrew WaaDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Michael DavidThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Judith McCoolDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, Faculty of Medical & Health Sciences, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Lucy HardieDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, Faculty of Medical & Health Sciences, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Marianne F WeberSchool of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Qingwei LuoThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Jamie EggerFaculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Becky FreemanPrevention Research Collaboration, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Ethnic inequities in health and mortality in Aotearoa/New Zealand have been driven in part by historic and ongoing inequities in smoking prevalence, with Māori and Pacific peoples most affected. Although overall smoking rates among year 10 students aged 14-15 years have declined substantially in recent decades, recent analyses suggested that e-cigarette use (vaping) may have slowed the decline in ever- and regular-smoking, while having little or no impact on daily smoking. However, it remains unclear whether these patterns differ for Māori, Pacific, European, or Asian adolescents. Methods: Interrupted time series analyses of the Snapshot Survey data (2003-2024; n = 588,143) to assess changes in smoking trends before and after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa among 14-15-year-old Māori, Pacific, European, and Asian adolescents. Findings: From 2003 to 2024, ever-, regular-, and daily-smoking prevalence declined substantially among Māori, Pacific, European, and Asian adolescents. However, the rates of decline in ever-smoking slowed significantly from 2010 onwards-coinciding with the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa-for Māori (p = 0.025), European (p < 0.001), and Asian (p = 0.018) adolescents. Similarly, declines in regular-smoking slowed significantly for Māori (p = 0.012), Pacific (p = 0.003), and European (p < 0.001) adolescents. A significant change in the rate of decline in daily smoking was observed only for European adolescents, who showed a small slowing (p = 0.004). Findings were robust to different time series interruption-points (change-years) and controlling for cigarette affordability. Interpretation: We found no evidence that vaping is displacing adolescent smoking among any of the four ethnic groups analysed. On the contrary, our findings suggest that the emergence and rise of vaping in Aotearoa may have undermined progress in reducing regular-smoking among Māori, Pacific, and European adolescents, but with more serious implications for Māori and Pacific youth. Funding: None.

Indexed as

AdolescentsAotearoaAsiane-cigarettesEthnic inequitiesEuropeanHealth InequitiesInterrupted time seriesMāoriNew ZealandPacific peoplesPublic healthRacial inequitiesSmokingSnapshot surveyTobacco controlVaping

Identifiers

PMID41368007
PMCPMC12685500

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.