Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41364762›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025

Climate sensitivity is widely but unevenly spread across zoonotic diseases.

Artur Trebski, Lewis Gourlay, Rory Gibb, Natalie Imirzian, David W Redding

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Artur Trebski *Science Department, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0009-0006-3259-5215
Lewis Gourlay *Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
Rory GibbDepartment of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
Natalie ImirzianScience Department, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-4977-0404
David W ReddingScience Department, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8615-1798

Funding

NSF (NSF) 2213854UKRI | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) BB/X005364/1UKRI | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) BB/X005364/2Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust (WT) 220179/A/20/ZWellcome Trust (WT) 220179/Z/20/ZWellcome Trust (WT) 226080/Z/22/ZWolfson Foundation (wolfsonfdn) via a UCL Excellence Fellowship
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change is expected to exacerbate infectious diseases, yet the climate sensitivity of zoonotic diseases (driven by spillover from animal reservoirs) is understudied compared to vector-borne and water-borne infections. To address this gap, we conducted a scoping review and quantitative synthesis to identify relationships between climatic indicators (temperature, precipitation, humidity) and zoonotic disease risk metrics worldwide. We identified 218 studies from 65 countries describing 852 measures across 53 diseases, with most studies testing linear (n = 193) rather than nonlinear (n = 28) relationships. We found evidence of climate sensitivity across diverse zoonotic diseases (significant nonzero relationships in 69.1% of temperature effects, 63.5% of precipitation effects, and 53.6% of humidity effects), but with variation in direction and strength. Positive effects of temperature and rainfall on disease risk were more common than negative effects (46.5% vs. 22.6% and 37.8% vs. 25.7% of all records, respectively). These studies were predominantly located in areas expected to have substantial increases in annual mean temperature (>1.5 °C in 97% of studies) and rainfall (>25 mm in 53% of studies) by 2041 to 2070. Notably, the most consistent relationship was between temperature and vector-borne zoonoses (56% of positive effects, mean Hedges'

Indexed as

Climate ChangeZoonosesAnimalsHumansRainTemperatureclimate changeglobal healthinfection riskzoonotic diseases

Identifiers

PMID41364762
PMCPMC12718308

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.