ArticleWorld journal of urology2025
Trends and burden of urolithiasis in China, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 with future projections to 2036.
Article in World journal of urology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeUrolithiasis is a common urological condition that imposes significant clinical and economic burdens. This study aims to assess the trends, burden, and epidemiological characteristics of urolithiasis in China from 1990 to 2021.
methodsData on urolithiasis prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. We used Joinpoint regression for trend analysis and the age-period-cohort (APC) model to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality. Additionally, we conducted decomposition analysis to elucidate the contributions of aging, population growth and epidemiological changes to disease burden, while the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed for forecasting future ASRs.
resultsOur findings revealed that in 2021, there were 19,141,120 new cases of urolithiasis, and this condition predominantly affected males and individuals aged 55 to 59. An analysis of the ASRs of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs from 1990 to 2021 showed a consistent downward trend. Despite this decrease in rates, the absolute number of new cases continued to rise. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a steady reduction in ASRs of prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2021. APC analysis showed that the incidence rate of urolithiasis was notably higher among middle-aged groups, whereas older populations experienced elevated mortality rates, which highlights age-related risk factors. Decomposition analysis suggested that epidemiological changes accounted for the largest share of the reductions in prevalence, mortality, and DALYs, while population aging contributed significantly to rising incidence numbers. Projections for 2036 indicated a moderate increase in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), alongside a decrease in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR).
conclusionsOur findings show a reduction in urolithiasis burden in China, but it remains a challenge for middle-aged and elderly groups, requiring targeted public health strategies.
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