ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2025
Temporal trends in the burden of heart failure in childbearing females aged 15-49 years globally from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2021-2050.
Article in European journal of medical research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundHeart failure in childbearing females aged 15-49 years has shown a steady global increase, with prevalence rising from 1.74 million cases in 1990 to 3.09 million cases in 2021, largely driven by metabolic dysfunction, pregnancy-related complications, and demographic shifts. This study evaluates temporal trends and projections of heart failure burden in this population using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.
methodsData on heart failure prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) were extracted from GBD 2021 for females aged 15-49 years. Linear regression analysis assessed temporal trends (1990-2021), while Bayesian age-period-cohort, autoregressive integrated moving average, and exponential smoothing models projected future burdens (2022-2050). Decomposition analysis quantified contributions from population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes.
resultsIn 2021, heart failure affected 3.09 million childbearing females (age-standardized prevalence rate: 156.9/100,000), contributing to 297,261 YLDs (age-standardized YLDs rate: 15.1/100,000). Burden varied by age, peaking in 45-49 year-olds, and region, with middle Socio-demographic Index regions reporting the highest absolute cases and low-SDI regions the highest ASRs. From 1990-2021, the disease burden increased. Projections indicate a rise in prevalence and YLDs by 2050, with South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa facing appeared to increase the most. China showed the most rapid growth, while Bolivia and Sweden reported declines.
conclusionHeart failure burden in childbearing females is rising globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The observed increasing trends highlight the need for improved maternal care and equitable healthcare access across regions.
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