Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41360775›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Predictive models of melanoma metastasis based on dermatoscopy in an international retrospective human reader study.

Konstantinos Lallas, Harald Kittler, Philipp Tschandl, Konstantinos Liopyris, Teresa Amaral, Giuseppe Argenziano, Renato Marchiori Bakos, Ralph Braun, Horacio Cabo, Emi Dika and 26 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

36 authors.

Konstantinos LallasAristotle University, Department of Medical Oncology, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Thessaloniki, Greece.
Harald KittlerMedical University of Vienna, Department of Dermatology, Vienna, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0051-8016
Philipp TschandlMedical University of Vienna, Department of Dermatology, Vienna, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0391-7810
Konstantinos LiopyrisUniversity of Athens, Department of Dermatology, Andreas Syggros Hospital of Cutaneous & Venereal Diseases, Athens, Greece.
Teresa AmaralSkin Cancer Clinical Trials Center, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.
Giuseppe ArgenzianoUniversity of Campania L. Vanvitelli, Dermatology Unit, Naples, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-8214
Renato Marchiori BakosUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Department of Dermatology, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Ralph BraunUniversity Hospital Zurich, Department of Dermatology, Zurich, Switzerland.
Horacio CaboUniversidad de Buenos Aires, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Emi DikaIRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico S. Orsola-Malpighi, Oncologic Dermatology Unit, Bologna, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3186-2861
Josep MalvehyHospital Clínic Barcelona, Dermatology Department, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6998-914X
Ashfaq MarghoobMemorial Sloan Kettering Skin Cancer Center, Memorial Sloan Kettering Skin Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6068-0114
Susana PuigHospital Clínic Barcelona, Dermatology Department, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1337-9745
Alon ScopeChaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel; Sackler School of Medicine, Medical Screening Institute, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Wilhelm StolzAllergology and Environmental Medicine, Clinic Thalkrichner Strasse, Department of Dermatology, Munich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4515-9395
Akane MinagawaTokyo Women's Medical University Adachi Medical Center, Department of Dermatology, Tokyo, Japan.
Manuela Martins CostaUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Department of Dermatology, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Marina AgozzinoMedical University of Trieste, Department of Dermatology and Venerology, Trieste, Italy.
Dana ShalmonThe Kittner Skin Cancer Screening and Research Center, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, and Tel Aviv University Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Giulia BriaticoUniversity of Campania L. Vanvitelli, Dermatology Unit, Naples, Italy.
Emilia Noemi Cohen SabbanUniversidad de Buenos Aires, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Victoria MarVictorian Melanoma Service, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9423-3435
Clare MahonFrazer Institute, The University of Queensland, Dermatology Research Centre, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Nicholas M MullerFrazer Institute, The University of Queensland, Dermatology Research Centre, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6294-4109
Masaru TanakaTokyo Women's Medical University Adachi Medical Center, Department of Dermatology, Tokyo, Japan.
Timothy LiuFrazer Institute, The University of Queensland, Dermatology Research Centre, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8034-9856
Felix PhamHospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Dermatology, Hôpital Lyon Sud, Pierre-Bénite, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7855-4930
Aurora AlessandriniIRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico S. Orsola-Malpighi, Oncologic Dermatology Unit, Bologna, Italy.
Alex ChamberlainGlenferrien Dermatology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Cristina Vico-AlonsoVictorian Melanoma Service, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.
Luc ThomasHospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Dermatology, Hôpital Lyon Sud, Pierre-Bénite, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1995-2434
H Peter SoyerFrazer Institute, The University of Queensland, Dermatology Research Centre, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4770-561X
Zoe ApallaAristotle University, Second Department of Dermatology, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Thessaloniki, Greece.
Efstrations VakirlisAristotle University, First Department of Dermatology, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Thessaloniki, Greece.
Iris ZalaudekMedical University of Trieste, Department of Dermatology and Venerology, Trieste, Italy.
Aimilios LallasAristotle University, First Department of Dermatology, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Thessaloniki, Greece. alallas@auth.gr.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7193-0964

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI SELWYN M VICKERS · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Current melanoma prognostic tools have limited clinical use at the bedside, highlighting the need for more effective biomarkers. Dermatoscopy correlates with established prognostic markers obtained through invasive procedures. However, its direct predictive value for metastasis remains unexplored. In this multinational study, 30 dermatologists evaluated 776 dermatoscopic images of melanomas (stage IB and above) for predefined criteria including structures, colors and vessels. Extensive dermatoscopic ulceration and blue-white veil are associated with increased risk of metastasis in the total cohort and reduced recurrence-free survival in early-stage melanomas, while extensive regression is associated with reduced metastasis risk and improved recurrence-free survival. Three predictive models of metastasis: (1) dermatoscopic features only, (2) histopathologic features only, and (3) a combination of both demonstrate comparable prognostic accuracy. Here, we show that dermatoscopy may offer valuable prognostic insights into melanoma's biological behavior before excision and help guide therapeutic decisions. Prospective validation in future trials is essential.

Indexed as

DermoscopyMelanomaSkin NeoplasmsAdultAgedDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm MetastasisPrognosisRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID41360775
PMCPMC12686518

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.