Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41350540›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Machine learning-supported framework for the classification of mpox infection and MVA immunization from multiplexed serology data.

Rebecca Surtees, Fridolin Treindl, Shakhnaz Akhmedova, Denis Beslic, Fatimanur Bayram, Akin Sesver, My Linh Nguyen, Thomas Rinner, Marica Grossegesse, Martin Skiba and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Rebecca Surtees *Highly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Fridolin Treindl *Biological Toxins (ZBS 3), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Shakhnaz Akhmedova *Image Analysis (ZKI-PH 3), Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2927-1974
Denis Beslic *Image Analysis (ZKI-PH 3), Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6346-7896
Fatimanur BayramHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9249-5850
Akin SesverHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2954-2957
My Linh NguyenHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Thomas RinnerHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Marica GrossegesseHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-8203
Martin SkibaBiological Toxins (ZBS 3), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Janine MichelHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6227-3125
Nils KörberImage Analysis (ZKI-PH 3), Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-2506-4297
Klaus JansenHIV/AIDS, STI and Blood-borne Infections (FG 34), Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4878-9421
Uwe KoppeHIV/AIDS, STI and Blood-borne Infections (FG 34), Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9718-5811
Ulrich MarcusHIV/AIDS, STI and Blood-borne Infections (FG 34), Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3143-2717
Nicole FriedrichMeasles, Mumps, Rubella, and Viruses Affecting Immunocompromised Patients (FG 12), Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4373-9713
Annette MankertzMeasles, Mumps, Rubella, and Viruses Affecting Immunocompromised Patients (FG 12), Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0131-5739
Katharina LadewigCentre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3397-1308
Hans Werner MagesBiological Toxins (ZBS 3), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Brigitte G DornerBiological Toxins (ZBS 3), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5100-2546
Andreas NitscheHighly Pathogenic Viruses (ZBS 1), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging Infections and Biological Threats, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. NitscheA@rki.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8185-3176
Daniel SternBiological Toxins (ZBS 3), Centre for Biological Threats and Special Pathogens, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. SternD@rki.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9057-4283

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The 2022 global mpox outbreak highlighted the risk of zoonotic diseases establishing sustained transmission in human populations and underscored the need for accurate serological tools to monitor orthopoxvirus exposure. However, cross-reactive antibodies induced by Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) vaccination make it difficult to discriminate between monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection and vaccination-induced immunity. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-assisted bead-based serological multiplex assay that distinguishes MPXV infection from MVA vaccination and pre-immune sera by targeting antibody responses to 15 poxviral antigens. Of the six algorithms tested, the Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) achieves the highest performance (F1 = 0.83) in sera from the 2022 outbreak and from a follow-up epidemiological cohort of at-risk men who have sex with men (MSM; n = 1,260). In an independent validation cohort (n = 143), GBC (F1 = 0.70) robustly detects MPXV infections, including breakthrough cases, with 88% specificity and 92% sensitivity. Integrating ML with high-dimensional serology enables accurate cross-sectional classification of orthopoxvirus immune status and provides a scalable framework for mpox serosurveillance and outbreak preparedness.

Indexed as

Machine LearningMpox, MonkeypoxVaccinia virusAdultAlgorithmsAntibodies, ViralCross ReactionsDisease OutbreaksFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMonkeypox virusVaccinationAntibodies, Viral

Identifiers

PMID41350540
PMCPMC12686480

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.