ArticleScience advances2025
The past and future of known biodiversity: Rates, patterns, and projections of new species over time.
Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Staking out the frontiers: The limits of the metazoan shallow marine fossil record.Science advances · 2026Article
- Article
- Insect-Derived Anti-Aging Bioresources: Current Status, Bottlenecks, and Future Directions.Insects · 2026Review
- Global biodiversity and the expanding Tree of Life.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Estimating global bee species richness and taxonomic gaps.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The Rise of China in Fungal Taxonomic Studies and Biodiversity Cataloging in the Past Decade.Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Our understanding of biodiversity patterns comes primarily from described species. Here, we analyze how known biodiversity has increased across living organisms. Past research suggested that the number of new species per year peaked near 1900 and that only ~2 million species exist. We find that overall rates of species descriptions have recently accelerated, with the largest numbers of new species per year all in the past ~20 years (2000 to 2020). The largest groups grew the most quickly during this period, including animals, arthropods, insects, and beetles. However, long-term trends in rates of species descriptions were often unrelated to recent rates and current richness. For example, rates for fungi have recently increased, whereas rates for insects have not. Extrapolating these rates of species descriptions into the future requires considerable caution. Nevertheless, some intriguing patterns are suggested, such as unexpectedly high projected species numbers of plants, fungi, arachnids, malacostracan crustaceans, ray-finned fishes, and amphibians.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.