Twenty-Two Years of Shrub Encroachment and Its Effects on Bird Communities in an African Savanna.

Open terrestrial ecosystems such as savannas have been experiencing marked increases in woody cover driven by shrub encroachment. Despite this widespread pattern, understanding the consequences for faunal communities remains challenging because long-term data are often not available and other structural changes, such as changing tree cover, may confound conclusions on shrub encroachment effects. We used satellite data and surveys of bird communities spanning 22 years to assess vegetation-cover dynamics and its effects on bird communities across the savanna ecosystem of Eswatini. We employed a hierarchical multi-species occupancy model that accounted for imperfect detection to assess changes in species occurrence, richness, and community assemblages. Between 1998 and 2020, shrub cover increased from 16% to 44% and tree cover increased from 17% to 28%. Across 64 species, shrub cover tended to have greater effects on bird occupancy than tree cover, with 34 (53%) species exhibiting positive linear associations with shrub cover and 15 (23.4%) species exhibiting a non-linear response to shrubs, where occupancy peaked at < 50% shrub cover. Shrub cover generated non-linear responses across all four bird diet groups and four of the five nesting groups. Species richness increased over time, with changes in the composition of bird assemblages being driven more by changes in shrub than tree cover. With recent predictions indicating a potential increase in shrub cover that is driven by global factors, community-wide changes in bird communities may intensify. To minimize negative consequences of changes in bird communities, land managers should initiate and expand existing woody cover management regimes in southern African savannas, where shrub cover remains high.