ArticleBMC surgery2025
Construction and external validation of a predictive model for permanent stoma after sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer.
Article in BMC surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe postoperative conversion of a protective stoma to a permanent stoma (PS) during sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer can significantly impact the patient’s quality of life. No reliable tools exist to predict the likelihood of a protective stoma becoming permanent in clinical practice. This study aimed to develop an online, dynamic nomogram for predicting PS using multicenter, large-sample data.
methodsA total of 588 patients were enrolled following screening. Predictive variables were selected using the univariate analysis. A prediction model was then created using multivariate logistic regression and presented as an online nomogram. The model’s performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). External validation was performed to assess the model’s accuracy within the validation cohort.
resultsOf the 588 patients, 81 (13.7%) had a PS. 507 paitients from our and another hospital were randomly assigned to a training cohort and internal testing cohort (7:3), and 81 patients from another hospital served as the external validation cohort. Critical predictive factors in the nomogram included ASA score ≥ 3, radiotherapy, diabetes and N་stage. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.784 [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.708–0.860] for the training cohort, 0.785 (95% CI 0.656–0.913) for the testing cohort, and 0.737 (95% CI 0.604–0.870) for the external validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated a strong correlation between predicted and observed outcomes, and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the nomogram’s clinical utility in predicting PS following sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer.
conclusionsThis study developed an online nomogram to identify high-risk factors for PS following rectal sphincter-preserving surgery, using multicenter data (modeling and external validation) from three hospitals in China. This tool supports clinicians in risk assessment. For high-risk patients, health education should be provided, and it may be advisable to offer the option of a colostomy.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.