Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41331436›Full record

ArticlePopulation health metrics2025

Modeling COVID-19 response in Cuba: a hybrid approach combining agent-based modeling and time series analysis.

Giuseppe Orlando, Michele Bufalo, Varvara Nazarova

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Population health metrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Giuseppe OrlandoDepartment of Economics and Finance, University of Bari, Bari, Italy. giuseppe.orlando@uniba.it.
Michele BufaloDepartment of Economics, Management and Business Law, University of Bari, Bari, Italy.
Varvara NazarovaDepartment of Finance, HSE University, Moscow, Russia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted vulnerable populations, such as low-income households, exacerbating existing health and economic challenges. In Cuba, the crisis exposed the effects of long-standing economic difficulties, worsened by sanctions, but the country's robust public health system and independent vaccine development enabled an effective response. This study addresses the gap in understanding how socio-economic factors and individual behaviors interact to influence disease spread. It proposes a hybrid, efficient, and parsimonious model combining ABM (Agent-Based Modeling) and ARIMAX (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables) time series analysis to forecast COVID-19 cases, offering valuable insights for policymakers to tailor interventions and enhance crisis management.

Indexed as

COVID-19CubaHumansPandemicsPublic HealthSARS-CoV-2Socioeconomic FactorsSystems AnalysisABMARIMAXCOVID-19Health PoliciesPCA

Identifiers

PMID41331436
PMCPMC12679736

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.