Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41329902›Full record

ArticleJCO clinical cancer informatics2025

Development of a Dynamic Counterfactual Risk Stratification Strategy for Newly Diagnosed Patients With AML Treated With Venetoclax and Azacitidine.

Nazmul Islam, Justin L Dale, Jamie S Reuben, Karan Sapiah, James W Coates, Frank R Markson, Jingjing Zhang, Lezhou Wu, Maura Gasparetto, Brett M Stevens and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JCO clinical cancer informatics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Nazmul IslamRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0008-0609-7655
Justin L DaleRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0008-6879-9767
Jamie S ReubenRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0000-0002-5940-4224
Karan SapiahRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0006-0992-4033
James W CoatesRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0007-9417-0762
Frank R MarksonRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0005-4026-3838
Jingjing ZhangDepartment of Pathology, University of Colorado Anschutz Campus, Aurora, CO.
Lezhou WuRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.
Maura GasparettoDepartment of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Campus, Aurora, CO.
Brett M StevensRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.
Sarah E StaggsRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.
William M ShowersRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0000-0001-5989-8570
Monica R RansomRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0005-0347-162X
Jairav DesaiRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.
Ujjwal V KulkarniRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0009-0002-4909-9403
Krysta L EngelRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.
Craig T JordanDepartment of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Campus, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0000-0003-0869-3465
Michael BoyiadzisOncoVerity, Aurora, CO.
Clayton A SmithRefinedScience, Aurora, CO.ORCID 0000-0001-6478-4244

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThe objective of this study was to develop a flexible risk stratification strategy for AML that is specific for venetoclax plus azacitidine (ven/aza), addresses real-world data (RWD) issues, and is also adaptable to different use cases.

methodsA series of tunable risk models (RMs) were generated from a dynamic counterfactual machine learning (ML) strategy. These used a range of features from diagnostic AML samples and were tested using objective metrics on a single-institution cohort of 316 newly diagnosed patients treated with ven/aza. RM performance was tested using various model assumptions, data elements, and end points and with applications to an external AML real-world cohort (RWC).

resultsFavorable, intermediate, and adverse risk groups were identified in a series of ML-based RMs using different assumptions, for genetic-only or genetic-plus-phenotypic data elements and with overall survival and event-free survival as end points. Most RMs demonstrated equitable patient distribution (approximately 20%-40% in each risk group), significant separation between risk strata (log-rank-based

conclusionThe proposed ML strategy addresses a variety of RWD considerations and is readily tunable through coding and parameter updates for different contexts and use case needs. This strategy represents a novel approach to developing more effective RMs for AML and possibly other diseases.

Indexed as

Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy ProtocolsAzacitidineLeukemia, Myeloid, AcuteAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBridged Bicyclo Compounds, HeterocyclicFemaleHumansMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRisk AssessmentSulfonamidesAzacitidineBridged Bicyclo Compounds, HeterocyclicSulfonamidesvenetoclax

Identifiers

PMID41329902
PMCPMC12685322

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.