Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41316421›Full record

ArticleBMC sports science, medicine & rehabilitation2025

Causal effect analysis of serving performance using double machine learning.

Jiacai Ma, Fuzhu Zou

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC sports science, medicine & rehabilitation, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Jiacai MaDepartment of Sports Science Convergence, Graduate School, Dankook University, Yongin-Si, Gyeonggi-do, 16890, Republic of Korea.
Fuzhu ZouDepartment of Korean Language and Literature, Korean Language Education, Dankook University, Yongin-Si, Gyeonggi-Do, 16890, Republic of Korea. zoufuzhu0123@163.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Serving performance is widely recognized as a critical factor influencing match outcomes in professional tennis. To evaluate its contribution to winning probability, this study analyzes ATP men's singles matches (2013-2024) and estimates the causal effects of four serve-related indicators: ace rate, first serve win rate, first serve in rate, and double fault rate.Results indicate that the ace rate shows a modest positive causal association rather than a uniformly negative one, while first serve win rate and first serve in rate exhibit context-dependent but statistically small impacts, and the double fault rate effects remain limited.These effects, although moderate in magnitude, remain statistically robust across multiple model specifications.The findings highlight the importance of adapting serve strategies across surfaces, ranking groups, and tournament levels.This study focuses exclusively on ATP men's singles data, and future research should validate these causal relationships in WTA and mixed competitions to enhance generalizability.

Indexed as

Causal inferenceDouble machine learningMatch win probabilityServing performanceTennis analytics

Identifiers

PMID41316421
PMCPMC12764002

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.