Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis and pneumonia.

Minhui Dai, Yun Tan, Yifei Fan, Bowen Yuan, Pinhua Pan

Abstract readValidation Study

In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1citing papers in PubMed

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3 · Its place in the literature

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

Dexmedetomidine may alleviate severe acute pancreatitis-associated lung injury by targeting the AIM2 inflammasome in endothelial cells.BMC anesthesiology · 2026
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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Minhui DaiDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Branch of National Clinical Research Centre for Respiratory Disease, Xiangya Hospital, National Key Clinical Specialty, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.

Yun TanCritical Care Medicine, Hunan Prevention and Treatment Institute for Occupational Diseases, Changsha, Hunan, China.

Yifei FanDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University , Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.

Bowen YuanDepartment of Pathology, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.

Pinhua PanDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Branch of National Clinical Research Centre for Respiratory Disease, Xiangya Hospital, National Key Clinical Specialty, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China. pinhuapan668@csu.edu.cn.

Funding

Key R&D Program of Hunan Province 2022SK2038Natural Science Foundation of Changsha kq2403004Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China 2023JJ30930Project Program of Central South University Graduate Education Teaching Reform 2022JGB025Research Project on Teaching Reform of Ordinary Colleges and Universities in Hunan Province 2022JGYB037Scientific Research Program of the FuRong Laboratory 2023SK2101Scientific Research Project Topics of the Hunan Provincial Health Commission B202302068083

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is associated with high mortality, and pulmonary complications worsen prognosis. However, risk stratification tools for patients with SAP and pneumonia remain underdeveloped. We developed a predictive model for mortality in these patients. A predictive model for early mortality in SAP patients with pneumonia was developed and validated. The training cohort consisted of patients admitted to Xiangya Hospital between April 2017 and May 2021, while external validation used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Predictors were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and incorporated into a nomogram. A total of 220 patients were included, with 30-day mortality of 22.7%. Six predictors were identified: BUN, RDW, age, SBP, HCT, and WBC. Multivariable analysis confirmed BUN and age as independent risk factors and SBP as a protective factor. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination in the training cohort and moderate discrimination in external validation. The model performed comparably to SOFA and APACHE II scores and outperformed disease-specific scores.We developed and validated a novel prediction model for 30-day mortality in SAP patients with pneumonia, with potential for aiding early risk stratification and clinical decision-making.

Indexed as

NomogramsPancreatitisPneumoniaAcute DiseaseAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSeverity of Illness IndexNomogramPneumoniaPrognosisSevere acute pancreatitis

Identifiers

PMID41298803

DOI10.1038/s41598-025-26223-6

PMCPMC12658097

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.