ArticleCureus2025
Accuracy of Different COVID-19 Severity Scores in ICU Transfer Prediction and Mortality Prediction Among Inpatients at Lebanese American University Medical Center-Rizk Hospital (LAUMC-RH).
Article in Cureus, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundThe healthcare system has been immensely drained by the COVID-19 pandemic. This required the use of multiple triage methods to allow better management of patients' care and resource distribution. Multiple severity scores have been proposed as predictors of mortality, ICU stay, and the need for intubation among COVID-19 patients. However, the efficiency of these scores in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, specifically Lebanon, hasn't been properly assessed.
objectivesThis study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the five COVID-19 severity scores: COVIC, CURB-65, ISARIC4C, COVID-GRAM, and CALL in foreseeing mortality, critical illness, and intubation needs among patients presenting to the emergency departments of the Lebanese American University Medical Center-Rizk Hospital (LAUMC-RH).
methodsThis is a retrospective study analyzing 520 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 between August 2020 and June 2021. Data was extracted from the electronic medical records, and statistical analysis was done to assess the predictive performance of each score. Results: The in-hospital mortality was 12.7%. All studied scores showed correlation with mortality; however, ISARIC4C and COVIC had superior sensitivity compared to the other scores. When studying the need for ICU admission, COVID-GRAM had the best predictive accuracy, while COVIC was able to accurately predict the need for intubation. Furthermore, CURB-65 had the lowest specificity in all outcomes.
conclusionDespite the ability of all five scores in predicting the severity of COVID-19, their predictive accuracy varied. Taking into consideration this being a single-center study, further multicenter validation studies in the MENA region are needed to define the optimal triaging model for COVID-19 infection or any future respiratory pandemic.
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