ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025
China's post-zero-COVID Omicron wave: A Bayesian analysis.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Disruption of winter influenza activity in Wuxi, China during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2013-2025): a counterfactual time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
Following the late 2022 transition from its "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, China experienced a major nationwide severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron wave. To characterize the wave's transmission dynamics, we used a Bayesian framework to fit a deterministic transmission model to two key data streams: reported COVID-19 daily case counts preceding the policy shift (up to November 11, 2022) and weekly virological and influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance data afterward (through February 12, 2023). We estimated a nationwide cumulative infection attack rate reaching 87.8% (95% CrI: 75.9 to 93.3%) by mid-February 2023. Notably, 84.1% of the population became infected within just 1 mo following the full policy relaxation on December 7. The estimated time-varying effective reproduction number peaked at 5.69 (95% CrI: 4.56 to 6.85) on December 8, 2022. Although transmission intensity increased during the Spring Festival travel rush (Chunyun), widespread population immunity prevented a subsequent wave. Prior to the Chunyun period, distinct relationships emerged: Estimated transmission rates showed a significant positive correlation with long-term population behavioral response coefficient (reflecting cumulative infections; Pearson correlation: ρ = 0.92,
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