Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41287634›Full record

ArticleVirus evolution2025

Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025.

Caroline Kikawa, John Huddleston, Andrea N Loes, Sam A Turner, Jover Lee, Ian G Barr, Benjamin J Cowling, Janet A Englund, Alexander L Greninger, Ruth Harvey and 10 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Virus evolution, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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  4. Article
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  10. Emergence of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) variants with immune escape potential warrants enhanced molecular and epidemiological surveillance for the 2025-2026 season.Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada = Journal officiel de l'Association pour la microbiologie medicale et l'infectiologie Canada · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Caroline KikawaDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
John HuddlestonVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4250-2063
Andrea N LoesDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Sam A TurnerCentre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, The Old Schools, Trinity Ln, Cambridge CB2 1TN, United Kingdom.
Jover LeeVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Ian G BarrWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7351-418X
Benjamin J CowlingWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
Janet A EnglundSeattle Children's Research Institute, 4800 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1134-4178
Alexander L GreningerVirology Division, Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington Medical Center, 1959 NE Pacific St, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
Ruth HarveyWorldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, 1 Midland Rd, London NW1 1AT, United Kingdom.
Hideki HasegawaInfluenza Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan Institute for Health Security, 1-21-1 Toyama Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan.
Faith HoWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5640-2223
Kirsten LacombeSeattle Children's Research Institute, 4800 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0299-9447
Nancy H L LeungWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7314-840X
Nicola S LewisWorldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, 1 Midland Rd, London NW1 1AT, United Kingdom.
Heidi PeckWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3651-2839
Shinji WatanabeInfluenza Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan Institute for Health Security, 1-21-1 Toyama Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan.
Derek J SmithCentre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, The Old Schools, Trinity Ln, Cambridge CB2 1TN, United Kingdom.
Trevor BedfordVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Jesse D BloomDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1267-3408

Funding

Translational Bioimaging Core Shared ResourceP30CA015704 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Eric Collisson · 1985 to 2026
$296.4M
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00014 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI GARCIA-SASTRE, ADOLFO · 2021 to 2025
$62.6M
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00015 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI HENSLEY, SCOTT · 2021 to 2025
$50.7M
Forecasting influenza evolution on a heterogeneous immune landscapeR01AI165821 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Jesse D Bloom, JOHN HUDDLESTON · 2022 to 2026
$3.0M
Integrating measurements of immune escape and in vitro replication with computational models to understand and predict the antigenic evolution of seasonal A/H3N2 influenza virusesR01AI165818 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE · PI Derek James Smith · 2022 to 2026
$2.6M
High-Performance Compute Cluster for Comprehensive Cancer and Infectious Diseases ResearchS10OD028685 · OD · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BRADLEY, PHILIP · 2020 to 2020
$2.0M
FHCRC High-Performance Computing ClusterS10OD020069 · OD · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI KOOPERBERG, CHARLES L · 2015 to 2015
$600k
Next-generation sequencing-based neutralization assays to forecast influenza virus clade growth.F30AI186284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Caroline Sakura Kikawa · 2025 to 2026
$92k
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA015704NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00014NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00015NIAID NIH HHS F30 AI186284NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI165818NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI165821NIH HHS S10 OD020069NIH HHS S10 OD028685
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The hemagglutinin of human influenza virus evolves rapidly to erode neutralizing antibody immunity. Twice per year, new vaccine strains are selected with the goal of providing maximum protection against the viruses that will be circulating when the vaccine is administered ~8-12 months in the future. To help inform this selection, here we quantify how the antibodies in recently collected human sera neutralize viruses with hemagglutinins from contemporary influenza strains. Specifically, we use a high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assay to measure how 188 human sera collected from Oct 2024 to April 2025 neutralize 140 viruses representative of the H3N2 and H1N1 strains circulating in humans as of the summer of 2025. This data set, which encompasses 26 148 neutralization titre measurements, provides a detailed portrait of the current human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza A virus. The full data set and accompanying visualizations are available for use in vaccine development and viral forecasting.

Indexed as

antigenic driftinfluenzasequencing-based neutralization assayvaccine strain selection

Identifiers

PMID41287634
PMCPMC12640540

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.